Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer

USA : Regular Season - 22

July 12, 2025

2025-07-12 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union

Home

2

vs

0

Match Finished

New York Red Bulls

Away

New York Red Bulls

Venue: Subaru Park, Chester, Pennsylvania

Referee: Marcos de Oliveira, USA

Recommended Bet

Home/Draw Win

Prediction Outcome

WON

AI Expert Analysis

Powered by the latest market data & analysis models

Prediction Summary

  • Result: Home Win (70%)

  • Goals: Home [2.3]

  • Away [0.7]

  • Reasoning: Philadelphia's recent attacking struggles from successive defeats , but Carnell's familiarity with Red Bulls and motivated home performance against former club plus New York's mounting injury crisis with Harper out for season and Morgan missing 8 weeks creates decisive advantage.

Recommended Bets

. Philadelphia Union to Win

Union have 9 wins, 5 draws in last 14 meetings vs Red Bulls and lost just one home match in league play this season

, while

Red Bulls have only won 9% of away matches and fail to score 36% of the time on the road

. Under 2.5 Goals

Under 2.5 goals in 4 of Union's last 5 matches and 4 of Red Bulls' last 5 away games, with under 2.5 in 10 of last 11 meetings between these teams

Value Opportunity

Tai Baribo Anytime Scorer

Carnell likely to recall striker Baribo who should "feast" against a New York backline that hasn't faced a scorer like him in a while , especially with Baribo being Union's MLS top scorer despite not scoring in US Open Cup yet .

Critical Factors

  • – .
  • – Carnell's Revenge Motivation: The Union coach faces his former club for the first time, stating he knows "what it's like firsthand being on the opposite side" and is "proud to be part of the other side of the family now"
  • –
  • – .
  • – Red Bulls Injury Crisis: Lewis Morgan out 8 weeks after knee surgery, Cameron Harper's season over after MCL surgery
  • – , forcing
  • – 6-year-old Julian Hall to start and undermanned lineup
  • –
  • – .
  • – Sandro Schwarz Suspension: Red Bulls coach fined and suspended for this match after red card incident
  • – , leaving team without their tactical leader during crucial knockout game.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level

Low

Main Risk

This is Philadelphia's first time losing consecutive games under Carnell , and despite the Columbus loss, Carnell remained "

Confidence

6/10

Analysis generated on: July 9, 2025 23:35 UTC

Data sources reviewed: 3

Bookmakers Odds

1xBet Featured Odds

Match Winner

Home
1.77
Draw
3.70
Away
4.20

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.21
Home/Away
1.26
Draw/Away
1.98

Odds provided by 1xBet. Please gamble responsibly. 18+

Match Winner

Home
1.77
Draw
3.70
Away
4.20

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.21
Home/Away
1.26
Draw/Away
1.98

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.22
Under 1.5
3.90
Over 2.5
1.66
Under 2.5
2.05
Over 3.5
2.60
Under 3.5
1.43
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
11.00
Over 4.5
4.60
Under 4.5
1.17
Over 5.5
8.75
Under 5.5
1.06
Over 6.5
17.50
Under 6.5
1.01

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.80
Away
4.50

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.20
Home/Away
1.22
Draw/Away
2.05

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.22
Under 1.5
4.00
Over 2.5
1.70
Under 2.5
2.10
Over 3.5
2.75
Under 3.5
1.44
Over 0.5
1.05
Under 0.5
9.50
Over 4.5
5.00
Under 4.5
1.17

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.70
Away
4.20

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.20
Home/Away
1.25
Draw/Away
2.05

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.80
Away
4.50

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.18
Home/Away
1.25
Draw/Away
2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.20
Under 1.5
4.33
Over 2.5
1.70
Under 2.5
2.10
Over 3.5
2.62
Under 3.5
1.44
Over 0.5
1.04
Under 0.5
13.00
Over 4.5
5.00
Under 4.5
1.17
Over 7.5
41.00
Under 7.5
1.00
Over 5.5
11.00
Under 5.5
1.05
Over 6.5
21.00
Under 6.5
1.01

Match Winner

Home
1.77
Draw
3.82
Away
4.40

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.21
Home/Away
1.27
Draw/Away
2.05

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.20
Under 1.5
3.88
Over 1.75
1.25
Under 1.75
3.46
Over 2.0
1.31
Under 2.0
3.12
Over 2.25
1.51
Under 2.25
2.41
Over 2.5
1.73
Under 2.5
2.11
Over 2.75
1.87
Under 2.75
1.85
Over 3.5
2.62
Under 3.5
1.40
Over 0.5
1.00
Under 0.5
9.30
Over 0.75
1.00
Under 0.75
9.30
Over 1.0
1.01
Under 1.0
8.90
Over 1.25
1.10
Under 1.25
5.25
Over 3.0
2.13
Under 3.0
1.63
Over 4.5
4.70
Under 4.5
1.12
Over 3.25
2.40
Under 3.25
1.49
Over 3.75
3.12
Under 3.75
1.28
Over 4.0
4.05
Under 4.0
1.17
Over 4.25
4.35
Under 4.25
1.14
Over 4.75
5.80
Under 4.75
1.07
Over 5.0
7.90
Under 5.0
1.02
Over 5.5
8.50
Under 5.5
1.01

Match Winner

Home
1.74
Draw
3.75
Away
4.50

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.21
Home/Away
1.27
Draw/Away
2.04

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.21
Under 1.5
4.35
Over 2.0
1.33
Under 2.0
3.20
Over 2.25
1.54
Under 2.25
2.43
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.07
Over 2.75
1.97
Under 2.75
1.84
Over 3.5
3.00
Under 3.5
1.38
Over 0.5
1.02
Under 0.5
13.00
Over 3.0
2.30
Under 3.0
1.61
Over 4.5
6.00
Under 4.5
1.12
Over 3.25
2.63
Under 3.25
1.49
Over 5.5
13.00
Under 5.5
1.02

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.90
Away
4.33

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.20
Under 1.5
4.20
Over 2.5
1.73
Under 2.5
2.05
Over 3.5
2.80
Under 3.5
1.40
Over 0.5
1.02
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
5.50
Under 4.5
1.13
Over 5.5
10.00
Under 5.5
1.02

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.85
Away
4.50

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.20
Home/Away
1.25
Draw/Away
2.10

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.23
Under 1.5
4.15
Over 2.0
1.35
Under 2.0
3.25
Over 2.5
1.72
Under 2.5
2.10
Over 3.5
2.75
Under 3.5
1.45
Over 0.5
1.05
Under 0.5
10.50
Over 1.0
1.07
Under 1.0
8.50
Over 3.0
2.20
Under 3.0
1.68
Over 4.5
4.90
Under 4.5
1.18
Over 4.0
4.20
Under 4.0
1.23

Match Winner

Home
1.79
Draw
3.91
Away
4.55

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.23
Under 1.5
4.39
Over 2.0
1.39
Under 2.0
3.11
Over 2.25
1.54
Under 2.25
2.58
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.17
Over 2.75
1.94
Under 2.75
1.94
Over 3.5
2.82
Under 3.5
1.46
Over 3.0
2.24
Under 3.0
1.70
Over 4.5
5.24
Under 4.5
1.18
Over 3.25
2.54
Under 3.25
1.56

Match Winner

Home
1.77
Draw
3.62
Away
4.09

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.17
Home/Away
1.21
Draw/Away
2.08

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.25
1.53
Under 2.25
2.49
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.12
Over 2.75
1.86
Under 2.75
2.00
Over 3.0
2.23
Under 3.0
1.67

Match Winner

Home
1.80
Draw
3.95
Away
4.60

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.23
Home/Away
1.25
Draw/Away
2.10

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.24
Under 1.5
4.05
Over 2.0
1.35
Under 2.0
3.30
Over 2.25
1.55
Under 2.25
2.55
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.15
Over 2.75
1.91
Under 2.75
1.93
Over 3.5
2.80
Under 3.5
1.47
Over 0.5
1.05
Under 0.5
10.25
Over 3.0
2.22
Under 3.0
1.70
Over 4.5
4.85
Under 4.5
1.18
Over 3.25
2.50
Under 3.25
1.57
Over 5.5
8.75
Under 5.5
1.07
Over 6.5
14.00
Under 6.5
1.03

Match Winner

Home
1.78
Draw
3.75
Away
4.20

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.22
Home/Away
1.29
Draw/Away
2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.20
Under 1.5
4.00
Over 2.5
1.65
Under 2.5
2.10
Over 3.5
2.60
Under 3.5
1.44
Over 0.5
1.01
Under 0.5
11.00
Over 4.5
4.75
Under 4.5
1.15
Over 5.5
8.50
Under 5.5
1.04

Match Winner

Home
1.67
Draw
3.80
Away
4.40

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.16
Home/Away
1.22
Draw/Away
2.05

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.17
Under 1.5
4.30
Over 2.5
1.65
Under 2.5
2.10
Over 3.5
2.60
Under 3.5
1.42
Over 0.5
1.01
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
4.90
Under 4.5
1.13
Over 5.5
7.80
Under 5.5
1.04

Match Winner

Home
1.75
Draw
3.70
Away
4.20

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.20
Home/Away
1.25
Draw/Away
2.05

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.22
Under 1.5
4.00
Over 2.5
1.70
Under 2.5
2.05
Over 3.5
2.75
Under 3.5
1.40
Over 0.5
1.04
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
5.00
Under 4.5
1.15
Over 5.5
10.00
Under 5.5
1.05

Match Winner

Home
1.78
Draw
3.80
Away
4.45

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.75
1.25
Under 1.75
3.63
Over 2.0
1.33
Under 2.0
3.32
Over 2.25
1.52
Under 2.25
2.61
Over 2.5
1.72
Under 2.5
2.21
Over 2.75
1.92
Under 2.75
1.98
Over 3.5
2.78
Under 3.5
1.46
Over 3.0
2.26
Under 3.0
1.69
Over 3.25
2.51
Under 3.25
1.56

Match Winner

Home
1.80
Draw
3.90
Away
4.20

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5
1.84
Under 2.5
2.06
Over 2.75
1.91
Under 2.75
1.99

Main Factors Weight Scores

Head to Head Score

Home

9.17

Away

2.47

Tactical Analysis

Home

3.03

Away

10.00

Recent Teams Form Score

Home

5.62

Away

4.38

Home vs Away Strength

Home

0.00

Away

0.00

Defensive Strength

Home

6.91

Away

5.16

Attacking Strength

Home

3.46

Away

3.26

Home Advantage

Home

5.50

Away

5.06

Motivation

Home

5.38

Away

5.64

League Position

Home

6.43

Away

3.84

Injuries and Suspension

Home

0.00

Away

0.00

Weather Impact

Home

5.00

Away

5.00

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