Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer

USA : Regular Season - 23

July 16, 2025

2025-07-16 23:30 UTC

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union

Home

2

vs

1

Match Finished

CF Montreal

Away

CF Montreal

Venue: Subaru Park, Chester, Pennsylvania

Referee: Guido Gonzales Jr, USA

Recommended Bet

Home/Draw Win

Prediction Outcome

WON

AI Expert Analysis

Powered by the latest market data & analysis models

Prediction Summary

  • Result: Home Win (68%)

  • Goals: Home [2.3]

  • Away [0.7]

  • Reasoning: Philadelphia's aggressive counter-pressing approach under Bradley Carnell has transformed them into first place in the East , while Montreal sit last in the East with no wins, three draws, and just four goals scored through ten MLS games this year .

Recommended Bets

. Philadelphia Union Win

The win marked the first time since September 2020 that the Union earned a road victory in Montréal

, showing they've overcome historical struggles at this venue.

. Under 2.5 Goals

Montreal's only Designated Player Vrioni missed the first nine games of the year with a lower body injury

and

may not yet be fit to go from the start

Value Opportunity

Philadelphia -1.5 Asian Handicap

Montreal fired head coach Laurent Courtois just five matches into the season and "We have more plays in the box, we are more solid in transitions. I am happy that our performances are improving" shows interim coach Donadel is still finding his feet.

Critical Factors

  • – .
  • – A shift was made to Bradley Carnell and a particular way to play soccer: a high-pressing style that is fast-paced and about as aesthetically pleasing as a car crash. However, when that style works, it's hard to look away from it and the goals and wins it brings
  • – .
  • – Samuel Piette will likely focus his efforts this week on Quinn Sullivan, who has been the primary attacking spark out of the Union midfield this season. If Piette can stick close to Sullivan, Philadelphia may struggle to progress the ball through midfield
  • – .
  • – "There is a hint of a trap game about this one, but that's no fun to predict. The Union continue their hot streak, and Montreal's search for a win drags on another week"

Risk Assessment

Risk Level

Medium

Main Risk

"They were coached to go over the top of the predictable press, just like DC United. The Union had no answers for that tactic. The Union started to fall back to prevent getting chipped, then their press started to fall apart and Montreal broke it at will" - Confidence Score: 7

Confidence

7/10

Analysis generated on: July 13, 2025 23:30 UTC

Data sources reviewed: 3

Bookmakers Odds

1xBet Featured Odds

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.60
Away
6.25

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.12
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.65

Odds provided by 1xBet. Please gamble responsibly. 18+

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.60
Away
6.25

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.12
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.65

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.16
Under 1.5
4.80
Over 2.5
1.49
Under 2.5
2.40
Over 3.5
2.20
Under 3.5
1.58
Over 0.5
1.02
Under 0.5
14.50
Over 4.5
3.70
Under 4.5
1.24
Over 5.5
6.75
Under 5.5
1.09
Over 6.5
13.00
Under 6.5
1.02

Match Winner

Home
1.46
Draw
4.65
Away
6.25

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.11
Home/Away
1.14
Draw/Away
2.65

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.17
Under 1.5
5.00
Over 2.5
1.50
Under 2.5
2.55
Over 3.5
2.25
Under 3.5
1.62
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
11.00
Over 4.5
3.90
Under 4.5
1.25
Over 5.5
7.00
Under 5.5
1.09

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.50
Away
6.00

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.12
Home/Away
1.20
Draw/Away
2.70

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.75
Away
6.00

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.12
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.62

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.14
Under 1.5
5.50
Over 2.5
1.53
Under 2.5
2.40
Over 3.5
2.25
Under 3.5
1.57
Over 0.5
1.02
Under 0.5
19.00
Over 8.5
51.00
Under 8.5
1.00
Over 4.5
4.00
Under 4.5
1.22
Over 7.5
29.00
Under 7.5
1.01
Over 5.5
8.00
Under 5.5
1.08
Over 6.5
17.00
Under 6.5
1.02

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.80
Away
6.55

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.11
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.78

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.09
Under 1.5
5.25
Over 1.75
1.12
Under 1.75
4.75
Over 2.0
1.15
Under 2.0
4.20
Over 2.25
1.31
Under 2.25
2.96
Over 2.5
1.46
Under 2.5
2.44
Over 2.75
1.58
Under 2.75
2.20
Over 3.5
2.31
Under 3.5
1.61
Over 1.25
1.04
Under 1.25
7.30
Over 3.0
1.77
Under 3.0
1.93
Over 4.5
3.88
Under 4.5
1.19
Over 3.25
2.01
Under 3.25
1.73
Over 3.75
2.62
Under 3.75
1.44
Over 4.0
3.25
Under 4.0
1.29
Over 4.25
3.54
Under 4.25
1.24
Over 4.75
4.85
Under 4.75
1.12
Over 5.0
6.75
Under 5.0
1.04
Over 5.5
7.50
Under 5.5
1.03
Over 5.25
7.10
Under 5.25
1.04

Match Winner

Home
1.40
Draw
4.75
Away
6.50

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.13
Under 1.5
5.50
Over 2.5
1.50
Under 2.5
2.50
Over 3.5
2.30
Under 3.5
1.57
Over 0.5
1.01
Under 0.5
17.00
Over 4.5
4.00
Under 4.5
1.22
Over 5.5
7.50
Under 5.5
1.07
Over 6.5
13.00
Under 6.5
1.01

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.80
Away
6.70

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.11
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.17
Under 1.5
5.10
Over 2.0
1.23
Under 2.0
4.15
Over 2.5
1.55
Under 2.5
2.45
Over 3.5
2.30
Under 3.5
1.62
Over 0.5
1.02
Under 0.5
16.00
Over 1.0
1.04
Under 1.0
12.00
Over 3.0
1.83
Under 3.0
1.97
Over 4.5
3.90
Under 4.5
1.25
Over 4.0
3.25
Under 4.0
1.35
Over 5.0
6.40
Under 5.0
1.12
Over 5.5
7.30
Under 5.5
1.09

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.86
Away
6.91

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.13
Home/Away
1.20
Draw/Away
2.92

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.17
Under 1.5
5.32
Over 2.5
1.55
Under 2.5
2.57
Over 2.75
1.67
Under 2.75
2.30
Over 3.5
2.35
Under 3.5
1.64
Over 3.0
1.86
Under 3.0
2.03
Over 4.5
4.08
Under 4.5
1.26
Over 3.25
2.11
Under 3.25
1.79
Over 3.75
2.67
Under 3.75
1.51
Over 5.5
7.65
Under 5.5
1.10

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.75
Away
5.75

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.13
Home/Away
1.18
Draw/Away
2.70

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.15
Under 1.5
4.75
Over 2.5
1.50
Under 2.5
2.40
Over 3.5
2.25
Under 3.5
1.57
Over 0.5
1.00
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
3.60
Under 4.5
1.25
Over 5.5
6.50
Under 5.5
1.08
Over 6.5
12.00
Under 6.5
1.00

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.50
Away
6.00

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.13
Home/Away
1.20
Draw/Away
2.70

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.15
Under 1.5
5.00
Over 2.5
1.50
Under 2.5
2.50
Over 3.5
2.25
Under 3.5
1.60
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
17.00
Over 4.5
3.90
Under 4.5
1.22
Over 5.5
7.50
Under 5.5
1.08

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.35
Away
6.10

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.75
1.79
Under 2.75
2.07
Over 3.0
2.01
Under 3.0
1.85

Match Winner

Home
1.44
Draw
4.80
Away
6.80

Goals Over/Under

Over 3.0
1.96
Under 3.0
1.94

Match Winner

Home
1.42
Draw
4.60
Away
6.00

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.07
Home/Away
1.15
Draw/Away
2.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.11
Under 1.5
5.30
Over 2.5
1.47
Under 2.5
2.45
Over 3.5
2.15
Under 3.5
1.62
Over 0.5
1.01
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
3.90
Under 4.5
1.20
Over 5.5
6.50
Under 5.5
1.07

Match Winner

Home
1.45
Draw
4.60
Away
6.25

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.13
Home/Away
1.20
Draw/Away
2.63

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.15
Under 1.5
5.40
Over 2.25
1.38
Under 2.25
2.95
Over 2.5
1.54
Under 2.5
2.43
Over 2.75
1.68
Under 2.75
2.18
Over 3.5
2.40
Under 3.5
1.55
Over 3.0
1.88
Under 3.0
1.92
Over 4.5
4.40
Under 4.5
1.20
Over 3.25
2.12
Under 3.25
1.71
Over 3.75
2.80
Under 3.75
1.43
Over 5.5
9.00
Under 5.5
1.06

Match Winner

Home
1.42
Draw
4.55
Away
6.09

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.08
Home/Away
1.16
Draw/Away
2.68

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.75
1.65
Under 2.75
2.26
Over 3.0
1.84
Under 3.0
2.02
Over 3.25
2.13
Under 3.25
1.74

Match Winner

Home
1.50
Draw
4.90
Away
6.70

Double Chance

Home/Draw
1.14
Home/Away
1.19
Draw/Away
2.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 1.5
1.18
Under 1.5
5.00
Over 2.25
1.40
Under 2.25
3.05
Over 2.5
1.55
Under 2.5
2.52
Over 2.75
1.65
Under 2.75
2.30
Over 3.5
2.35
Under 3.5
1.62
Over 0.5
1.03
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 3.0
1.85
Under 3.0
2.00
Over 4.5
3.90
Under 4.5
1.26
Over 3.25
2.10
Under 3.25
1.78
Over 3.75
2.70
Under 3.75
1.50
Over 7.5
16.00
Under 7.5
1.01
Over 5.5
6.90
Under 5.5
1.10
Over 6.5
11.50
Under 6.5
1.04

Main Factors Weight Scores

Head to Head Score

Home

7.40

Away

3.81

Tactical Analysis

Home

3.37

Away

9.15

Recent Teams Form Score

Home

6.66

Away

3.34

Home vs Away Strength

Home

0.00

Away

0.00

Defensive Strength

Home

7.37

Away

5.44

Attacking Strength

Home

3.00

Away

1.69

Home Advantage

Home

5.50

Away

4.23

Motivation

Home

5.87

Away

5.76

League Position

Home

6.40

Away

1.56

Injuries and Suspension

Home

0.00

Away

0.00

Weather Impact

Home

5.00

Away

5.00

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